On paper, Red Sox are facing Yankees at an inopportune time

In Major League Baseball, over the course of a 162-game season, timing is everything. It's better to catch a team when it is struggling, banged up or both than when it is on a roll at full strength. On paper, at least, this is not an ideal time for the Boston Red Sox to play the New York Yankees.
Sure, the American League East standings show that the Yankees are 34-23 and the Red Sox are 33-24 and just a game out. Yet the Yankees have what so far has been a healthy Alex Rodriguez in their lineup, and Mark Teixeira's April funk has long passed. The Red Sox have David Ortiz, who even with a six-game hitting streak has still not surpassed the Mendoza line, and an ailing Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew (both of whom have shoulder strains). The Yankees are fresh off a series at Yankee Stadium that saw them take two out of three from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox laid an egg at Fenway Park over the weekend, dropping two out of three against Texas, scoring one run and three runs in the two losses.
That the Red Sox are nine games over .500 and just a game out of first at this point in the season is puzzling. Until recently, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have looked like marginal back of the rotation starting pitchers instead of aces. Daisuke Matsuzaka has been a no show all year while Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny are performing their best Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act - a good start here and an awful outing there. For most of the season, Ortiz has been an automatic out. The shortstop position - manned by Nick Green and Julio Lugo - has cost Red Sox pitchers a plethora of runs because neither guy has the range to reach grounders that most Major League shortstops would turn into routine outs and both players have a tendency to botch the grounders they do field and uncork a throw nowhere near Kevin Youkilis. And right now, noone in the lineup is delivering a clutch hit, leaving runners on base and squashing potential big innings.
Despite all of this, the Red Sox are one game out of first place. Not a bad spot to be in, if you ask me. The three-game series between the Sox and Yankees that starts tonight at Fenway Park is important. True, it will not be devastating for the losing team if it gets swept, but the momentum from this three-game set can be instrumental. If the Red Sox sweep the Yankees, or grab two out of three, not only will they reclaim first place in the AL East, but perhaps they can regain some fire. In recent weeks, this team has looked sluggish. One game, the offense looks impressive, and then the next game, it is held to a run and four hits. If the Yankees conduct a sweep, or take two out of three, it will reinforce their confidence. They are 0-5 against the Red Sox so far in 2009.
Here is a look at the pitching matchups in the series:
Tonight - Josh Beckett (6-2, 4.09 ERA) versus A.J. Burnett (4-2, 4.69 ERA). This is an important game for the Sox. Better to be tied for first place with two games left in the series than to fall two games behind. The last time these two pitchers and former teammates opposed one another, the Red Sox clubbed the Yankees, 16-11. It would seem like this would be a pitcher's duel, but as we have learned when the Sox and Yankees clash, you can expect the unexpected.
Wednesday - Tim Wakefield (7-3, 4.50 ERA) versus Chien-Ming Wang (0-3, 14.46 ERA). Why is it that, although Wang has been dreadful in 2009, I don't like this matchup? Perhaps Wakefield's track record against the Yankees is the reason. The knuckleballer is 10-17 with a 5.03 ERA in his career versus the Yankees, which have a habit of using the knuckler for batting practice. Knowing the history of the Sox-Yankees rivalry, the Beckett-Burnett matchup will be a slugfest and the Wakefield-Wang battle will be a 1-0 or 2-1 game.
Thursday - Brad Penny (5-2, 5.85 ERA) versus C.C. Sabathia (5-3, 3.56 ERA). Multiple media reports indicate that the Sox are in a hurry to trade Penny, especially when June 15 arrives and they no longer have to get his permission. Personally, I like the Penny to Philadelphia for Triple-A shortstop Jason Donald rumor, but I digress. Penny has been adequate, aside from his last start. Sabathia is 2-4 with a 3.91 ERA in seven starts against the Sox, so he is definitely hittable.
Notes and observations
Every time ESPN's Buster Olney writes a column about a trade rumor, it should be accompanied with an asterisk. So many times a trade rumor reported by Olney is debunked hours after it is published. The latest example is his golden nugget that the Sox are interested in Oakland's Orlando Cabrera. That was quickly dismissed. According to one AL team's statistical analysis, Cabrera is the worst defensive shortstop in the AL. Thanks, but no, thanks. The Red Sox already have two shortstops with limited range and unreliable fielding and throwing abilities.
Recent reports in Boston media outlets indicate that Theo Epstein will wait for Jed Lowrie to return instead of dealing away prospects for a shortstop. Apparently, the cost in prospects for J.J. Hardy. Jack Wilson and Bobby Crosby is too prohibitive. Since it is evident that Boston will trade Brad Penny as early as June 15, the Sox could get a shortstop in Philadelphia prospect Jason Donald, who is stuck behind Jimmy Rollings and Chase Utley (Donald can also play second base). Donald is a defensive whiz who would be in the majors on many teams. Omar Vizquel is a possibility. The Rangers need relievers, and as we saw last weekend, Vizquel is still a competent defensive shortstop, even at 42. I'm not sure if the Rangers would deal Vizquel, though. He is serving as a mentor to bright young shortstop, Elvis Andrus.
Don't get me wrong. I like Jed Lowrie. I think he will be a productive major league hitter, and he can proficiently play the middle infield spots and third base. For this season, perhaps it is best if he starts at shortstop. In 2010 and beyond, though, maybe he would best serve the Sox in a super utility role. Wouldn't it be nice to have a productive young player who can fill all four infield spots when needed? Yes, Lowrie can also play first base.
If the Sox do not acquire a shortstop, I am comfortable with Nick Green serving as the utility man for the remainder of the season when Lowrie returns. Green has a strong arm, and he has the range to make the routine plays. His problem has been erratic throws, which he has cut down on recently. Until Lowrie gets back in late June or early July, Green should play every day. Julio Lugo is such a liability that he cannot even get to routine grounders. It is clear he has not recovered from knee surgery. What was his main asset - his speed - no longer exists. He is not an offensive threat, either. He thinks he should be playing instead of Green. At this point, the Sox would be better off summoning Gil Velazquez from Pawtucket. Velazquez can't hit major league pitching, but he is defensively sound. When will the Red Sox release Lugo? Obviously, John Henry knows that he has no choice but to eat Lugo's remaining salary (he is signed through 2010 for $9 million a year). Why not do it now instead of when Lowrie returns?
As a Red Sox fan, aren't you sick of the annual talk about the shortstop position? Yesteryear is just that, yesteryear, so we shouldn't dwell in it like Yankees fans, who are immersed in the history books reminiscing when they won World Series titles. Sure, Theo Epstein should have kept Orlando Cabrera, who was still a decent defensive shortstop in 2004. True, Edgar Renteria was a mistake. Yes, Alex Gonzalez was adequate. He hit well enough to justify his spot in the lineup because of his exceptional defense. Maybe, just maybe, Lowrie can provide stability to the position. I just get the feeling that Epstein shares my opinion that, for the long term, Lowrie will best help this team as a utility man who can play all four infield spots. If this is true, the Sox could have yet another shortstop in 2010.